TD-TO%: 2012 Week 12 Quarterback Ranking

Highlights from Week 12:

• No change among the top six quarterbacks in the ranking; after a couple weeks in a row of solid performances, Tom Brady is just about even with Aaron Rodgers in this ranking.
• Although they are not yet eligible for the ranking, it is possible to tell where some of the newly starting quarterbacks will place next week. Nick Foles, Brady Quinn, and Ryan Lindley all project to fall at the very bottom of the rankings below Matt Cassel. Chad Henne and Colin Kaepernick, on the other hand, project to ranking among the upper half of quarterbacks in the NFL. It’s important to note that given the smaller body of work on which to base the percentage, a good/bad game this weekend could certainly alter their overall rank significantly.
• Biggest improvement: Once again, Robert Griffin III had a great game in which he took full advantage of Pierre Garcon (in his first significant game back from injury) – he rose five spots to crack the top ten at #9 overall.
• Largest drop: Jake Locker fell six spots to #15 overall after a rough performance in a Titans loss to Jacksonville (1 TD, 2 INT). His sharp drop is both a reminder that it takes time for a quarterback to establish his true quality in this ranking as well as proof of how tightly bunched the middle of this ranking is among quarterbacks.

RK	PLAYER	TEAM	Ratio %	Change from Week 11
1	Aaron Rodgers	GB	5.10%	0
2	Tom Brady	NE	4.74%	0
3	Peyton Manning	DEN	4.14%	0
4	Drew Brees	NO	3.91%	0
5	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	3.44%	0
6	Josh Freeman	TB	3.10%	0
7	Andy Dalton	CIN	2.93%	+3
8	Alex Smith	SF	2.71%	-1
9	Robert Griffin III	WSH	2.40%	+5
10	Russell Wilson	SEA	2.28%	+3
11	Matt Schaub	HOU	2.23%	-3
12	Kevin Kolb	ARI	2.16%	-1
13	Matt Ryan	ATL	1.50%	-1
14	Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	1.25%	+1
15	Jake Locker	TEN	1.18%	-6
16	Joe Flacco	BAL	1.13%	0
17	Sam Bradford	STL	0.71%	+2
18	Carson Palmer	OAK	0.66%	-1
19	Matthew Stafford	DET	0.61%	+1
20	Christian Ponder	MIN	0.55%	-2
21	Eli Manning	NYG	0.38%	+3
22	Matt Hasselbeck	TEN	0.22%	-1
23	Blaine Gabbert	JAC	0.18%	-1
24	Jay Cutler	CHI	0.00%	-1
25	Philip Rivers	SD	-0.13%	0
26	Tony Romo	DAL	-0.33%	0
27	Brandon Weeden	CLE	-0.75%	+1
28	Mark Sanchez	NYJ	-0.83%	-1
29	Andrew Luck	IND	-0.88%	+1
30	Michael Vick	PHI	-0.92%	-1
31	Cam Newton	CAR	-1.04%	0
32	Ryan Tannehill	MIA	-2.07%	+1
33	John Skelton	ARI	-2.21%	-1
34	Matt Cassel	KC	-3.67%	0

For more information on TD-TO%, check out my article in The Atlantic: “And Now, Another Effective Way to Rank NFL Quarterbacks.”

TD-TO%: 2012 Week 11 Quarterback Ranking

Highlights from Week 11:

• We’re starting to enter that point in the season where injuries really take a toll: several quarterbacks were missing in action this week including Ben Roethlisberger, Alex Smith, and Jay Cutler. Depending on how things progress, we could see a couple new entrants into the ranking next week (once they cross the 100 attempt threshold).
• Biggest improvement: Robert Griffin III gained five positions to reach 14th overall (four touchdowns and no interceptions on only 15 attempts will do that for you!).
• Largest drop: Matt Ryan set a new standard for TD-TO% awfulness by throwing five interceptions with one fumble – the last quarterback to throw at least five interceptions with no touchdowns was Josh Freeman in 2009…the last quarterback to do that and win was Bart Starr in 1967!
• The top five quarterbacks in this ranking have a combined win-loss record of 32-18. In comparison, the bottom five quarterbacks have a combined record of 14-29.

RK	PLAYER	TEAM	Ratio %	Change from Week 10
1	Aaron Rodgers	GB	5.62%	0
2	Tom Brady	NE	4.30%	+1
3	Peyton Manning	DEN	4.28%	-1
4	Drew Brees	NO	4.06%	+1
5	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	3.44%	+1
6	Josh Freeman	TB	3.38%	-2
7	Alex Smith	SF	2.71%	+1
8	Matt Schaub	HOU	2.71%	+1
9	Jake Locker	TEN	2.33%	+1
10	Andy Dalton	CIN	2.31%	+2
11	Kevin Kolb	ARI	2.16%	0
12	Matt Ryan	ATL	1.75%	-5
13	Russell Wilson	SEA	1.74%	0
14	Robert Griffin III	WSH	1.57%	+5
15	Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	1.37%	-1
16	Joe Flacco	BAL	1.16%	-1
17	Carson Palmer	OAK	0.83%	-1
18	Christian Ponder	MIN	0.78%	-1
19	Sam Bradford	STL	0.60%	+2
20	Matthew Stafford	DET	0.23%	-2
21	Matt Hasselbeck	TEN	0.22%	+1
22	Blaine Gabbert	JAC	0.18%	-2
23	Jay Cutler	CHI	0.00%	0
24	Eli Manning	NYG	-0.41%	+1
25	Philip Rivers	SD	-0.43%	-1
26	Tony Romo	DAL	-0.63%	+1
27	Mark Sanchez	NYJ	-0.77%	+2
28	Brandon Weeden	CLE	-0.80%	+2
29	Michael Vick	PHI	-0.92%	-1
30	Andrew Luck	IND	-0.95%	-4
31	Cam Newton	CAR	-1.78%	+2
32	John Skelton	ARI	-2.21%	0
33	Ryan Tannehill	MIA	-2.24%	-2
34	Matt Cassel	KC	-3.67%	0

For more information on TD-TO%, check out my article in The Atlantic: “And Now, Another Effective Way to Rank NFL Quarterbacks.”

TD-TO%: 2012 Week 10 Quarterback Ranking

Highlights from Week 10:

• Josh Freeman enters the top five after a strong showing against San Diego, displacing Matt Ryan.
• Biggest improvement: Andy Dalton (12th) and Christian Ponder (17th) each move up five positions.
• Largest drop: Jay Cutler dropped from 15th place to 23rd after the beating provided by the Texans defense.
• Eli Manning dropped seven positions following his three turnover performance against the Bengals. Comparing his performance to Dalton’s, the Giants had a -7 touchdown to turnover differential at the quarterback position – easy to see there why they were blown out so badly.

RK	PLAYER	TEAM	TD-TO %	Change from Week 9
1	Aaron Rodgers	GB	5.95%	0
2	Peyton Manning	DEN	4.22%	0
3	Tom Brady	NE	3.89%	0
4	Josh Freeman	TB	3.58%	+3
5	Drew Brees	NO	3.56%	0
6	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	3.44%	0
7	Matt Ryan	ATL	3.40%	-3
8	Alex Smith	SF	2.71%	+1
9	Matt Schaub	HOU	2.36%	-1
10	Jake Locker	TEN	2.33%	NR
11	Kevin Kolb	ARI	2.16%	-1
12	Andy Dalton	CIN	1.89%	+5
13	Russell Wilson	SEA	1.74%	-1
14	Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	1.50%	-3
15	Joe Flacco	BAL	1.44%	-1
16	Carson Palmer	OAK	0.92%	-3
17	Christian Ponder	MIN	0.78%	+5
18	Matthew Stafford	DET	0.64%	+2
19	Robert Griffin III	WSH	0.37%	0
20	Blaine Gabbert	JAC	0.36%	-4
21	Sam Bradford	STL	0.34%	+2
22	Matt Hasselbeck	TEN	0.22%	-1
23	Jay Cutler	CHI	0.00%	-8
24	Philip Rivers	SD	0.00%	+1
25	Eli Manning	NYG	-0.27%	-7
26	Andrew Luck	IND	-0.68%	-2
27	Tony Romo	DAL	-0.86%	+3
28	Michael Vick	PHI	-0.92%	0
29	Mark Sanchez	NYJ	-0.99%	-3
30	Brandon Weeden	CLE	-1.33%	-1
31	Ryan Tannehill	MIA	-2.11%	-4
32	John Skelton	ARI	-2.30%	-1
33	Cam Newton	CAR	-2.32%	-1
34	Matt Cassel	KC	-3.54%	-1

Intro to TD-TO%: And Now, Another Effective Way to Rank NFL Quarterbacks

TD-TO%: 2012 Week 9 Quarterback Ranking

RK	PLAYER	TEAM	TD-TO%
1	Aaron Rodgers, QB	GB	5.95%
2	Peyton Manning, QB	DEN	4.61%
3	Tom Brady, QB	NE	3.73%
4	Matt Ryan, QB	ATL	3.32%
5	Drew Brees, QB	NO	3.31%
6	Ben Roethlisberger, QB	PIT	3.31%
7	Josh Freeman, QB	TB	3.09%
8	Matt Schaub, QB	HOU	3.00%
9	Alex Smith, QB	SF	2.59%
10	Kevin Kolb, QB	ARI	2.16%
11	Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB	BUF	1.54%
12	Russell Wilson, QB	SEA	1.48%
13	Carson Palmer, QB	OAK	0.90%
14	Joe Flacco, QB	BAL	0.90%
15	Jay Cutler, QB	CHI	0.82%
16	Blaine Gabbert, QB	JAC	0.80%
17	Andy Dalton, QB	CIN	0.70%
18	Eli Manning, QB	NYG	0.47%
19	Robert Griffin III, QB	WSH	0.37%
20	Matthew Stafford, QB	DET	0.29%
21	Matt Hasselbeck, QB	TEN	0.22%
22	Christian Ponder, QB	MIN	0.17%
23	Sam Bradford, QB	STL	-0.20%
24	Andrew Luck, QB	IND	-0.29%
25	Philip Rivers, QB	SD	-0.37%
26	Mark Sanchez, QB	NYJ	-0.54%
27	Ryan Tannehill, QB	MIA	-1.22%
28	Michael Vick, QB	PHI	-1.26%
29	Brandon Weeden, QB	CLE	-1.33%
30	Tony Romo, QB	DAL	-1.55%
31	John Skelton, QB	ARI	-2.30%
32	Cam Newton, QB	CAR	-2.47%
33	Matt Cassel, QB	KC	-3.51%

And Now, Another Effective Way to Rank NFL Quarterbacks

Check out my new article on The Atlantic website: And Now, Another Effective Way to Rank NFL Quarterbacks.This article introduces a new statistic, TD-TO%, designed to show the best quarterbacks in the league at completing drives and maintaining possession of the football. Ultimately, this stat should be combined with other stats to make a more complete picture of the quarterback competitive landscape. Aaron Rodgers currently (as of Week 9) leads the NFL in this statistic.